Welcome to the final First Friday episode of the 12 months. Right now, we’ll dive into an unprecedented second within the U.S. financial system: a lacking jobs report, a divided Federal Reserve, a sluggish labor market, and a vacation purchasing season formed by AI, cut price hunters, and low shopper confidence.
On this episode, we cowl:
Lacking Jobs Report & Knowledge Chaos:
Why the Bureau of Labor Statistics didn’t publish two months of knowledge, and why October’s numbers will by no means be launched.
ADP Job Losses & Small Enterprise Pressure:
The private-sector payroll report reveals main job losses — pushed nearly completely by small companies.
Fed Fee Determination — With No Knowledge:
The Fed meets on December 9–10, compelled to make a name on rates of interest with out official employment information for 2 months.
Vacation Spending Traits:
Report-breaking Cyber Week gross sales… paired with declining family budgets and hovering discount-store efficiency.
AI-Assisted Buying:
Over half of shoppers used AI to hunt offers, evaluate choices, and monitor worth drops — making this probably the most tech-driven vacation season ever.
Yr-Finish Monetary Strikes:
Sensible steps to take earlier than December 31, together with 401(okay) contributions, FSA deadlines, tax-loss harvesting, and charitable giving methods.
Key Takeaways
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We’re lacking core financial information — the primary time in 12 years a jobs report was delayed, and the primary time ever a month will stay completely clean.
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Small companies are hurting probably the most, with ADP exhibiting 32,000 job losses pushed nearly completely by firms underneath 49 staff.
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The Fed might reduce charges, however inner disagreement is unusually public — one thing not seen because the early Eighties.
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Customers are pessimistic, spending much less per family whilst whole vacation gross sales hit report highs.
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AI is now a mainstream purchasing software, influencing 22% of Cyber Week world gross sales.
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Now’s the time for year-end cash housekeeping, particularly for office retirement plans, FSAs, tax planning, and charitable giving.
Assets & Hyperlinks
Glossary
ADP Payroll Report:
A month-to-month estimate of private-sector job creation primarily based on payroll information from ADP shoppers — typically used as a proxy when BLS information is unavailable.
JOLTS:
Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey — measures job openings, hires, and quits.
Client Sentiment:
A gauge of how optimistic or pessimistic households really feel about their monetary future.
Certified Charitable Distribution (QCD):
A tax-efficient manner for folks 70½+ to donate cash immediately from an IRA to a charity.
Tax-Loss Harvesting:
Promoting investments at a loss to offset capital good points.
Timestamps
(Timestamps are approximate and will fluctuate on account of dynamic advert insertion.)
02:10 — Spotify Wrapped for Podcasters: Shocking Listener Overlap
06:45 — Why We’re Lacking the BLS Jobs Report
12:30 — ADP Knowledge: Small Companies Take the Largest Hit
18:55 — What the Fed Should Determine With out Official Jobs Numbers
24:40 — Will Mortgage Charges Lastly Fall Beneath 6%?
29:15 — Vacation Spending: Report Gross sales, Declining Budgets
35:50 — Low cost Chains Surge as Center-Market Retail Slumps
41:20 — AI-Assisted Buying: Value Monitoring, Bots & Customized Offers
46:10 — Purchase Now, Pay Later Hits $10B — Good or Unhealthy?
49:55 — Giving Tuesday’s Large Soar in Donations
53:20 — Yr-Finish Monetary Strikes: 401(okay)s, IRAs, FSAs & Tax Strikes
59:00 — Remaining Ideas: What This All Means for Your Cash in 2026
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