The current report by PricewaterhouseCoopers, warning that poverty ranges in Nigeria are set to worsen sharply in 2026, alongside the World Financial institution’s, presents a chance to the federal and state governments to take pressing and coordinated motion to deal with the disaster, Davidson Iriekpen writes
The brand new report by PricewaterhouseCoopers, which tasks that no fewer than 141 million Nigerians will stay in poverty in 2026, ought to jolt the federal and state governments into motion.
The report, revealed in PwC’s Nigeria Financial Outlook 2026, and titled: ‘Turning Macroeconomic Stability into Sustainable Development,’ said that current coverage changes geared toward stabilising the financial system have but to translate into tangible welfare features for households.
PwC warned that weak actual revenue development, mixed with persistently excessive dwelling prices, will push thousands and thousands of Nigerians deeper into poverty for the following two years, at the same time as headline inflation is predicted to reasonable. Power prices, logistics bills, and exchange-rate pass-through will proceed to maintain meals and important items costs excessive, the report mentioned.
The agency estimates that the poverty fee will climb to 62 per cent this yr, a stark indicator that easing inflation alone is not going to translate into improved dwelling requirements.
In consequence, the report famous that the majority Nigerians are unlikely to see wage or revenue will increase that meaningfully hold tempo with rising prices, leaving low-income households particularly uncovered to financial shocks.
With out sturdy job creation, productiveness enhancements, and satisfactory social safety, it added, efforts to cut back poverty might stay out of attain. The agency additionally highlighted insecurity in food-producing areas and climate-related shocks as further components sustaining excessive meals costs.
Meals accounts for as much as 70 per cent of whole consumption amongst poorer Nigerians, leaving them extremely uncovered to meals worth will increase. With meals inflation remaining elevated, these households are disproportionately affected by worth shocks.
In response to specialists, rising poverty ranges pose important dangers to Nigeria’s financial stability and development prospects. A bigger share of the inhabitants struggling to fulfill primary wants may weaken home consumption, restrict productiveness features, and pressure public funds.
The World Financial institution’s Nigeria Improvement Replace had additionally shared an identical view. The lender famous that absolutely the variety of folks dwelling in poverty has elevated sharply, from about 81 million in 2019 to roughly 139 million in 2025, which means practically 62 per cent of the inhabitants now lives under the poverty line.
Earlier estimates confirmed about 115 million Nigerians in poverty in 2023, rising to round 129 million in 2024, indicating that about 14 million folks fell into poverty in only one yr.
The multilateral lender projected that the poverty fee will peak at 62 per cent in 2026, equal to about 141 million folks, earlier than dipping to 61% in 2027, or roughly 140 million Nigerians, the primary predicted reversal in practically a decade.
For thousands and thousands, particularly in rural and northern areas, prospects of reduction stay distant, as meals inflation, structural inequality, and weak social safety methods proceed to deepen hardship.
In 2018/19, the Nigeria Dwelling Requirements Survey estimated poverty at 40 per cent, or 81 million folks. By 2022/23, that determine had surged to 56 per cent, about 113 million Nigerians. This escalation coincided with falling consumption, weak development, and hovering inflation. Between 2019 and 2023, common consumption per individual fell by practically seven per cent, with city households hit hardest.
“Between 2019 and 2023, common consumption fell by 6.7%, particularly in city areas, whereas poverty rose from 40% (81 million folks) to a projected 61% (139 million folks) by 2025, with three-quarters of the rise occurring earlier than 2023,” the World Financial institution mentioned.
The Presidency, nonetheless, had disputed the figures. The Particular Adviser on Media and Public Communication, Sunday Dare, mentioned on X (previously Twitter) that the statistics had been “unrealistic” and ought to be “correctly contextualised” inside world poverty measurement frameworks.
Poverty in Nigeria is available in numerous kinds: an absence of revenue and productive sources to maintain livelihoods; starvation and malnutrition; sickness and dying; and restricted entry to training and different primary providers. It consists of insufficient housing and unsafe environments. Additionally it is seen in an absence of participation in decision-making and civil, social, and cultural life.
Nigeria at the moment has a inhabitants of 237 million folks, and over 133 million Nigerians live in poverty. It’s larger in rural areas, the place 72 per cent of persons are poor, in contrast with 42 per cent in city areas.
Nigeria has endured many years of violent insurgencies and ranks sixth on the 2025 International Terrorism Index. Quite a few folks have been killed, and thousands and thousands displaced. The variety of casualties from terrorist assaults in 2025 is alarming. Many of the casualties are in locations with excessive poverty ranges.
The President Bola Tinubu-led administration had launched into a sweeping market-oriented reform programme practically three years in the past, geared toward restoring stability and predictability to an financial system lengthy characterised by volatility.
Measures such because the removing of petrol subsidies, electrical energy tariff changes, and the liberalisation of the international change market have helped appropriate deep-seated distortions and strengthen public funds. Nonetheless, they’ve triggered sharp will increase in the price of dwelling, eroded family buying energy, and pushed extra Nigerians into poverty.
Nominal family spending rose by 19.6 per cent from N116.5 trillion in 2024 to an estimated N139.3 trillion in 2025, reflecting rising costs moderately than improved welfare. In actual phrases, nonetheless, family consumption contracted by 2.5 per cent from N12.2 trillion to N11.9 trillion over the identical interval, underscoring the depth of the squeeze on dwelling requirements and suggesting that poverty pressures are unlikely to ease rapidly.
Meals inflation, though easing in the direction of the tip of 2025 attributable to improved harvests and change fee stability, has remained a big drag on family welfare, notably in city centres and conflict-affected rural areas.
Rising insecurity continues to disrupt agricultural manufacturing and provide chains. On the identical time, geopolitical tensions and softer world development may weaken exterior demand and oil revenues, limiting the federal government’s capability to scale up social spending.
Addressing Nigeria’s deepening poverty problem would require greater than macroeconomic stabilisation. Sustained progress will depend upon accelerating job-creating development, bettering productiveness throughout key sectors, strengthening social security nets, and making certain that reform features are transmitted extra successfully to households.
Additionally, the federal and state governments should do every thing potential to enhance the nation’s infrastructure, akin to energy and roads.
That Nigeria is grappling with epileptic energy provide – a key increase to startups and industrialisation – is unacceptable. Roads for evacuating items and farm produce are principally in deplorable situation.
With out such measures, headline enhancements in development and inflation might coexist with worsening social outcomes, leaving thousands and thousands of Nigerians struggling below the burden of excessive dwelling prices and fragile incomes even because the financial system exhibits indicators of restoration.
With political exercise set to peak this yr, it’s unclear when each the federal and state governments will allocate time to deal with poverty. Whereas insecurity continues to be not abating, there aren’t any concrete poverty alleviation mechanisms in place to deal with the issue.
That is why governments in any respect ranges should de-emphasise politics and focus on tackling the menace.
