What a horrible title for a weblog submit! Hey, they’ll’t all be winners.
2025 was an amazing yr for us! And in case you have been invested in index funds, it was an amazing yr for you too.
Cash
This weblog is meant to be about cash. Let’s begin there.
Markets are up. Once more.
The S&P 500 was up 18%! Craziness. Mr. Market has been on a spectacular run. I nonetheless bear in mind after I began this weblog again in 2013 listening to folks saying that ‘every little thing have been overvalued,’ so that they have been ‘sitting it out.’ Here’s what they missed out on:
Observe that in these 14 years:
- There have solely been 2 down years. 2!!!
- There have been 11 years of 10%+ returns.
- There have been 6 years of 20%+ returns.
- There have been 2 years of 30%+ returns.
- $1,000 invested at first of 2012 could be price $6,750 now (14.6% progress per yr!). Thanks Mr. Market. You’ve been an amazing pal to us.
The celebration will take a break sooner or later. I fear about geopolitical occasions like an invasion of Taiwan. However it’s pointless to attempt to predict these things. It’s additionally very tough to inform how these occasions would have an effect on Mr. Market in the event that they did occur. And it’s rather more enjoyable (and profitable) to be an optimist.
Google’s Resurgence
Everybody was down and out on Google. ChatGPT stole Google’s thunder, however now the tables are turning:
I by no means misplaced religion in Google as a result of it staff among the smartest folks on this planet. I wouldn’t wager towards Demis Hassabis and Jeff Dean. And we are able to’t discuss Google with out speaking about its autonomous automotive subsidiary, Waymo. Extra on that beneath.
AI Is Right here To Keep
The primary funding query I hear folks asking these days is that this:
Is there an AI bubble?
That is the unsuitable query. AI is right here to remain and even when firms are presently overvalued, it received’t matter long run. In contrast to lots of the dot-com bubble firms, AI has large substance. I exploit it daily:
- My car’s little AI inference mind drives me round whereas I ponder the panorama.
- I exploit Gemini to assist interpret constructing codes and design programs in our new place.
- I’ve used totally different AI for casual remedy periods: “Why do I ruminate on ____?” The recommendation has been genuinely useful. (I by no means thought I’d shed tears whereas having an impromptu remedy session in my automotive which has Grok.)
As an alternative of pondering the short-term valuation of AI firms, people must be excited about the long-term ramifications of AI. Will probably be a bumpy street as society offers with job loss. However I imagine the world will probably be higher for it.
Crypto Was A No-Present
I’m not a fan of crypto, however I believed it could have an amazing yr. It had so many tailwinds. Regardless of that, crypto didn’t do so well.
However it additionally had an enormous run-up in 2024, so maybe it was simply taking a break.
I admit that crypto drives me a bit loopy due to its fanatical followers. I’ve acquired quite a few emails and DMs from them, telling me why I’m loopy for not investing in it. If it’s so nice, why do people should so fervently evangelize it? I believed the dividend crowd was overly enthusiastic, however the crypto crowd is on one other stage.
Expertise
As a child, I performed with Lego, toy rockets, and computer systems. I used to be thrilled to be dwelling sick on the uncommon day when there was a shuttle launch as a result of that meant I might watch it.
As an grownup, I play with Lego, toy rockets, and computer systems. When there’s a rocket launch, I cease no matter I’m doing to observe it. This consists of pulling over to the aspect of the street and watching it on my telephone.
I really like expertise. Issues that fly are superior. So is house. So are computer systems. Extra random ideas forward.
Information Facilities In House
Inference processing in house will probably be a factor. Elon began yapping about it in 2025. We all know he’s a bit loopy, however when Google begins speaking about it, I take it severely: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2511.19468
Waymo Turned A Nook
Waymo (a Google firm) gave over 14 million (!!!) absolutely autonomous journeys in 2025. And it’s increasing aggressively in 2026. The service has an extremely good safety record. Much less folks dying in auto accidents is a superb factor. So is much less automotive possession. (I might consider 1,000,000 higher issues to do with my storage than parking vehicles in it.) I look ahead to a future the place transportation turns into a service for a lot of.
Tesla (sigh…)
In December, I road-tripped out to California and used my Y’s autonomous driving software program (FSD) for all the journey.
- On the primary day, I went 960 miles. That’s a LOOOONG day, however when the automotive is doing the driving, it’s a lot simpler. You recline the seat a bit, placed on an audiobook (The Satan within the White Metropolis this time), and observe the world a bit greater than you would in case you have been driving.
- On the second day, the automotive drove completely from Hollywood to Lengthy Seashore at rush hour. The journey was solely 30 miles, however took 2.5 hours due to visitors. If I had been driving, my nerves would have been frayed and I’d have most likely misplaced my thoughts a minimum of as soon as alongside the best way. The automotive handled:
- Pedestrians in the midst of lanes tweaked out on unknown illicit substances
- Scooters and ebikes
- One golf cart (Who drives a golf cart down the center of a busy street? Some man in L.A. does.)
- Driving into the blinding solar
- VERY aggressive L. A. drivers (Holy cow, a few of y’all are nuts! Decelerate! Don’t driveo n sidewalks both! These are for folks.)
FSD is a minor miracle. More often than not. A few weeks in the past right here in my dwelling of Boulder County, it tried to show into oncoming visitors in a building zone. Whoops.
As nice as FSD is, autonomous driving is an extremely tough drawback that Tesla has but to completely remedy. To place it one other approach: In my final 10,000 miles of driving, I’ve needed to intervene twice for questions of safety. That is fully unimaginable. It’s additionally not practically ok. Present me 50,000 miles of driving and not using a security difficulty I’ll be joyful.
On the similar time, Waymo is accelerating its deployment of robotaxis. Tesla has wager the corporate on autonomy and it’s behind. Might this be the start of the tip for Tesla? Possibly.
Me
OK, I don’t like this half a lot, however this weblog has at all times been a little bit of a private journal. Random ideas about my 2025 and what’s coming in 2026.
2025 Was Our Largest 12 months But For Positive factors (and spending)
2025 was a yr of huge spending. We offered $215,000 in investments to assist pay for the F.O.O.L.I.S.H. Project. We additionally invested in a brand new enterprise enterprise (extra on that at a later date). Regardless of our outsized spending, our employee greenback military greater than saved tempo. Our internet price went from $6,460,794 to $8,535,505, a rise of $2,074,711.
At my first job, I made $37,000/yr. Earlier than taxes. Accounting for inflation, this might be $73,573. So:
$2,074,711 / $73,573 = 28
In a single yr, our portfolio generated the equal of 28 years of revenue from that job. That is the facility of compounding. It’s superb to have a pressure like this working for you. I don’t do a lot of something besides have a look at our numbers each from time to time.
2026 Might Be One other Nice Cash 12 months
Most of our positive factors got here from personal fairness; SpaceX and Impulse House. Google additionally had an exceptional yr, appreciating about 65%. Life is nice.
I wrote about investing in personal firms last year. My speculation is that index investing will probably be diminished as firms keep personal longer. By staying personal, indexers quit positive factors to the personal cash.
I’ve performed on this house a bit with my greatest holding being SpaceX. SpaceX is meant to IPO this yr. If it IPOs on the rumored valuation of 1.5t, we’ll add one other $2,000,000 to the pile. Craziness.
Nonetheless, SpaceX nonetheless has a lot to show. The largest factor being a profitable touchdown and reuse of the Starship orbital car. That is an extremely tough problem and it is going to be fascinating to see if SpaceX can pull it off. The opposite problem is in-space refueling. This one isn’t as tough (rockets dock with the house station on a regular basis), however important to SpaceX’s moon and Mars ambitions.
We’ll be spending much more cash to finish the F.O.O.L.I.S.H Project. Thus far, we’ve spent (largely borrowed truly) $427,083. I’m guessing we’ll spend one other $400,000 to see the venture to completion.
Health
I owe y’all a health replace. I’ve achey shoulders from operating ERV and PEX traces, however in any other case doing nice. My one foolish 2025 aim was to stroll 8,000,000 steps. I went a bit overboard:
One factor to notice about all of those steps is that almost all of them weren’t pressured; they have been a results of my life-style. Once you spend 30 hours in per week operating hundreds of toes of plastic traces, you find yourself transferring round so much.
My 2025 focus was on energy coaching. In 2026, I’m including cardio again into the combination. I’ve seen my resting coronary heart fee creep up yearly since 2020 and I don’t prefer it. Proper now, I’m doing 4×4 workouts a minimum of twice per week. When the climate warms up, I’ll get again on my bike for lengthy rides.
Pleased As Ever
In August of 2025, after considering on it for a very long time, we began building a house. This venture has given me sudden amusement and pleasure. Fixing puzzles (MMM would name it voluntary hardship) like putting in an ERV and hydronic heating system have been lots of enjoyable. Subsequent, I’ll be putting in a mini-split system (largely for cooling).
This venture will probably be accomplished within the first half of 2026 after which I’ll determine my subsequent problem. I additionally plan on sitting a bit bit extra. However not an excessive amount of. The place is the enjoyable in that?!??
Roaming About The World
I’m wanting ahead to visiting the Netherlands for the primary time in a few months and returning to Germany within the fall. With a child at college in California, I’ll be there ceaselessly as effectively.
Life is nice.
Extra 1500 Days!!!
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