Analysts Blame Fuel, Transport Costs For High Food Prices Despite Lower Inflation

BY OLUSHOLA BELLO AND FAVOUR OLOKUNGBОYE, Lagos

Despite Nigeria’s headline inflation charge declining to 14.63 per cent in September 2026, excessive gas costs and transportation prices proceed to restrict aid for households, as costs of a number of meals commodities stay elevated, merchants and financial stakeholders have stated.

LEADERSHIP studies that the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) stated headline inflation fell to 14.63 per cent in September from 15.39 per cent in August, representing a decline of 0.76 share factors. The charge was additionally decrease than the 20.98 per cent recorded in September 2025.

However, meals inflation remained excessive at 19.59 per cent year-on-year, at the same time as meals costs declined by 1.55 per cent month-on-month. Monthly headline inflation additionally slowed to 0.06 per cent from 0.71 per cent in August.

The Director and Chief Executive Officer of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE), Dr Muda Yusuf, described the September inflation report as a combined image, noting that headline and core inflation had moderated whereas meals inflation remained elevated at 19.59 per cent.

He additionally pointed to the acceleration in month-to-month vitality inflation to five.38 per cent, warning that it mirrored persistent supply-side pressures and the financial system’s vulnerability to vitality shocks.

Yusuf stated meals inflation was notably extreme for low-income households as a result of meals accounted for a major proportion of their expenditure.

“Consequently, elevated food inflation erodes real incomes, deepens poverty risks and weakens household consumption,” he stated.

He defined that as households devoted extra of their earnings to meals, much less cash remained for manufactured merchandise, schooling, healthcare and different providers. This weakened client demand and put strain on companies, notably these depending on family spending.

According to him, persistent meals inflation mirrored structural weaknesses in agriculture, together with insecurity, poor rural infrastructure, excessive logistics prices, post-harvest losses and inefficient market connectivity.

“Addressing these constraints requires targeted supply-side interventions rather than reliance predominantly on monetary tightening,” Yusuf stated.

The President of the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI), Engr Leye Kupoluyi, additionally cautioned in opposition to deciphering the decline in inflation as proof that the price of dwelling had fallen.

“The decline in the inflation rate should not be mistaken for a reduction in the overall price level. The cost of living remains elevated, and many households continue to struggle with food, transportation, housing, energy and other essential expenses,” he stated.

Kupoluyi warned that will increase in petrol and diesel costs in the course of the third quarter and into the fourth quarter may threaten the disinflation course of by elevating prices throughout the financial system.

He defined that increased vitality prices have been handed on via transportation, manufacturing, agriculture, distribution and retail, probably offsetting the advantages of easing inflation.

The LCCI president urged financial and monetary authorities to coordinate insurance policies that may maintain disinflation with out unnecessarily constraining productive funding.

He additionally known as for measures to deal with insecurity in food-producing areas, insufficient infrastructure, excessive logistics prices and inefficiencies throughout home provide chains.

Market checks at Ile-Epo Market in Lagos on Saturday confirmed that seasonal harvests had diminished the costs of some commodities, together with yam. However, increased transportation and distribution prices continued to push up the costs of different important meals gadgets, leaving shoppers scuffling with family bills.

The combined value actions spotlight the problem of translating easing inflation into significant aid for shoppers, notably as rising vitality and logistics prices proceed to affect the costs of products transported from farming communities to city centres.

A dealer dealing in rice, beans and garri, Mr Daniel Chukuka, recognized gas costs and transportation bills as main components figuring out meals costs.

According to him, gas costs have been comparatively low initially of August however rose in the direction of the top of the month, contributing to adjustments in commodity costs.

He added that increased gas costs in October had elevated transport fares and the price of shifting items to the market.

Chukuka defined that merchants thought of their buy prices and prevailing market situations when fixing promoting costs, whereas competitors amongst sellers additionally influenced how a lot they charged shoppers.

The impression of rising logistics prices was additional highlighted by Mrs Joan Iheonu, a rice dealer, who stated the costs of some manufacturers had elevated regardless of the reported decline in inflation.

“They say inflation has dropped to 14.63 per cent. Which inflation? A bag of rice last month was ₦68,000; now it is ₦70,000 to ₦72,000, depending on the brand,” she stated.

Iheonu attributed the rise partly to transportation prices, noting that shifting rice from Kebbi State to Lagos value about ₦18,000 per bag resulting from excessive diesel costs.

“How will price drop? Customers are complaining that there is no money. We now sell in small measures,” she added.

At Ile-Epo Market, a 50-kilogramme bag of Oloyin beans that offered for ₦160,000 in August remained on the similar value in October, whereas a 50-kilogramme bag of rice declined marginally from ₦55,000 to ₦54,000.

In distinction, a 50-kilogramme bag of yellow garri elevated from ₦20,000 to ₦23,000, whereas a 25-litre container of groundnut oil rose from ₦55,000 to ₦56,000 over the identical interval.

Yam recorded a extra vital value discount, with Efuru yam, which offered for between ₦6,000 and ₦6,500 in August, now promoting for between ₦3,000 and ₦5,000, relying on measurement.

A yam dealer attributed the decline to the arrival of recent yam available in the market, explaining that seasonal provide had helped to decrease costs regardless of rising gas prices.

“What affects yam price is season. The reason the price has come down now is that it is new yam,” he stated.

“Despite fuel price being up, it does not really affect yam because we are in the season,” he added.

Similarly, Musa Ibrahim, a dealer dealing in beans and grains, stated costs had declined solely marginally following the arrival of recent harvests from Niger State.

“Beans were ₦85,000 per bag in August; now it is around ₦82,000 because a new harvest has entered from Niger State. But it is not cheap. This same bag was ₦35,000 before,” he stated.

The combined value actions have left shoppers struggling to attain significant financial savings regardless of the easing inflation charge.

A bread distributor and shopper at Ile-Epo Market, Mrs Stella Omonye, stated some meals gadgets had turn into cheaper whereas others had elevated in value.

“Some food items like yam and rice have reduced, while some like garri, red oil and vegetable oil have increased,” she stated.

Omonye, who spends about ₦150,000 month-to-month on meals, stated her expenditure had remained nearly unchanged since August as a result of will increase in others offset value reductions in some commodities.

She added that she may nonetheless buy roughly the same amount of meals together with her traditional price range however had but to expertise vital aid from the decline within the nationwide inflation charge.

Meanwhile, CardinalStone Research stated the sharp month-on-month decline in meals costs reported by the NBS was uncommon lately. However, comparable actions have been extra frequent between 1996 and 2005, a interval it related to better meals safety.

The analysis agency advised that the decline may need been partly pushed by reductions in market meals costs and a attainable easing of safety considerations. It cited indications from FEWS NET Nigeria of improved entry to farmland in beforehand affected communities.

However, the experiences of merchants and shoppers point out that the advantages of seasonal harvests stay uneven throughout meals classes, with increased gas and transportation prices persevering with to affect costs.

Experts preserve that sustained aid would require greater than a decline within the inflation charge. Lower logistics prices, improved safety in farming communities, higher storage services and extra environment friendly meals provide chains are essential to average costs and restore family buying energy.

Until these structural challenges are addressed, Nigerians might proceed to face excessive meals costs regardless of additional moderation in headline inflation.