At N166trn, Nigeria’s debt-to-GDP nears 40%

I don’t have any topic using the loans,” he said.

His concern, he added, was that Nigeria’s former feel alongside borrowing and debt administration had not been sufficiently encouraging.

 

 

Nigeria’s entire community debt has risen to N166.79 trillion as of June 30, 2026, bringing the country’s debt burden complete to 40 per cent of its gross domestic offering (GDP) and prompting renewed concerns within economists over debt sustainability, borrowing efficiency and the employ of borrowed money.

The newest figures released by the Debt Instruction Office (DMO) showed that the country’s audience debt stock increased by N7.44 trillion during three months, rising from N159.35 trillion at the conclude of March 2026 to N166.79 trillion by the terminate of June.

The strengthen represents a 4.7 per cent quarter-on-quarter rise, including domestic borrowing continuing to account for the larger communicate of the country’s obligations.

Of the complete debt stock, domestic debt stood at N91.59 trillion, representing 54.91 per cent, although external debt accounted for N75.20 trillion, or 45.09 per cent.

In dollar terms, Nigeria’s complete community debt stood at $120.93 billion, comprising $66.41 billion in domestic obligations and $54.52 billion in external debt.

The Federal Government of Nigeria (FGN) remained responsible for the overwhelming majority of the debt, accounting for N152.77 trillion, or regarding 91.6 per cent of the entire.

The FGN’s external debt stood at N65.77 trillion, representing 39.44 per cent of the extensive society debt, whereas its domestic obligations amounted to N87 trillion, equivalent to 52.16 per cent.

States and the Federal Money Territory accounted for the remaining N14.01 trillion, comprising N9.42 trillion in external debt and N4.59 trillion in domestic obligations.

The current figures have intensified discuss over Nigeria’s fiscal attitude, specifically as the country approaches the 40 per cent debt-to-GDP threshold referenced under its fiscal framework.

Economic analyst and Principal Executive Officer of Financial Derivatives Business, Bismarck Rewane, said the size of the debt was becoming a important concern, notably given the absence of a corresponding broaden in productivity.

“166 trillion naira is the debt which is regarding 40 per cent of GDP and there is a Fiscal Responsibility Act that says we shouldn’t exceed 40 per cent of GDP,” Rewane said.

He, nonetheless, argued that the essential matter should not be the size of the debt alone but what the government had used the borrowed finance to purchase.

“The subject is not how much the debt is, but what we have used the debt to obtain. We haven’t seen any corresponding improve in productivity yet,” he said.

According to him, the country is simultaneously dealing including a expense-of-living and affordability crisis, making the growing debt burden further significant.

Rewane additionally noted that upper oil prices, although practical to government turnover, could have combined effects on the wider economy.

He pointed out that using crude oil prices around $107 per barrel, increased oil settle could assist government finances, but upper universal oil prices could too render into increased costs for petroleum products and aviation fuel.

“Whatever you look at it, you win some and you lose some,” he said, stressing that Nigeria’s debt per capita was already high and should not persist rising unchecked.

Another significant subject, according to Rewane, is the charge of servicing the accumulated debt.

He recalled that the government had previously converted considerable Ways and Means advances into longer-term debt, a shift that helped resolve an direct fiscal matter but added to the country’s general debt burden.

“We are talking around huge debt offering costs and that is a burden,” he said.

FGN bonds remained the largest piece of the Federal Government’s N87 trillion domestic debt, alongside an outstanding value of N64.84 trillion, representing 74.53 per cent of the portfolio.

Before the complete of the bond portfolio, FGN Naira bonds accounted for N41.47 trillion, whereas securitised Ways and Means advances stood at N22.11 trillion.

The outstanding FGN domestic US-dollar bond was valued at N1.27 trillion following conversion at the June 30 commerce rate.

Nigerian Treasury Bills accounted for another N19.48 trillion, representing 22.39 per cent of the FGN’s domestic debt.

Other domestic instruments included FGN Sukuk valued at N1.19 trillion, FGN savings bonds at N122.45 billion, green bonds at N47.36 billion and promissory notes worth N1.22 trillion.

The promissory notes comprised N206.82 billion in naira-denominated instruments and N1.01 trillion in foreign-currency-denominated notes. UFTF FGN securities accounted for another N100 billion.

For Professor Nwokoma, an economic analyst, the debt-to-GDP threshold should be viewed as a fiscal sustainability reference rather than an absolute gauge of whether borrowing is sustainable.

He argued that borrowing itself was not necessarily problematic if resources were properly organized, targeted at successful projects and accompanied by a understandable repayment procedure.

“If the loans are well targeted, I don’t see any difficulty,” Nwokoma said.

He likened debt limits to medical dosage guidelines, explaining that such benchmarks were designed to tutorial fiscal command and steer clear of excessive exposure.

Nonetheless, he warned that problems arise when borrowed resources are used for purposes that do not generate adequate economic returns.

“If it is frivolous, that’s where the matter is,” he said.

Nwokoma identified Nigeria’s historical debt direction practices as a significant source of worry, arguing that the country’s past learn did not propose satisfactory confidence that fresh borrowing would repeatedly be efficiently deployed.

He said the key subject was accordingly not plainly whether Nigeria could borrow extra, but whether there was adequate evidence that modern loans would be properly organized, invested and repaid.

“If we borrow, I can see where the finance is going. I can see how the repayment will be done, and we can see what benefits the loan will bring to the economy.

Source: At N166trn, Nigeria’s debt-to-GDP nears 40%

Terfa Ukende

Terfa Ukende is a Nigerian travel writer, blogger, and the founder of Watch Nigeria. Combining an analytical background in Computer Science and Statistics from Joseph Sarwuan Tarka University, Makurdi (JOSTUM) with years of on-the-ground fieldwork, Terfa has crossed dozens of Nigerian cities—from Kano and Yola to Lagos and Port Harcourt. He founded Watch Nigeria to counter regurgitated travel advice with firsthand, independently verified reporting on routes, accommodations, and local culture. When not on the road, he is planning his next cross-country expedition.

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