Cheaper chicken, vegetable oil drive 11.5% fall in jollof rice cost

The cost of cooking a pot of jollof rice in Nigeria fell by 11.5 per cent between June and September 2026, pushed largely by declining costs of rooster, beef and vegetable oil as the principle harvest reached markets, in response to a report by SBM Intelligence.

The National Average Jollof Index dropped from N29,578 in June to N26,178 in September, marking the biggest quarterly decline for the reason that geopolitical analysis and strategic communications agency started monitoring the cost in July 2016.

In its third-quarter 2026 report, titled ‘The Pot Cools, but Not Everywhere’, SBM Intelligence mentioned the decline was concentrated in protein and oil costs, whereas rice costs remained largely unchanged.

SBM’s index costs the elements for one pot of jollof rice in mounted portions throughout 13 Nigerian markets in the nation’s six geopolitical zones.

The portions embody rice, rooster, tomatoes, vegetable oil, purple pepper, tinned tomatoes, onions, beef, salt, curry, thyme and seasonings.

“Chicken and beef together account for N13,800 of the fall,” the report mentioned, noting that protein had been the dominant driver of rising jollof rice prices in its second-quarter report.

The report attributed the sharpest decline to the interval between June and July, when the index fell by N2,312, coinciding with the arrival of the principle harvest in markets. Prices had been comparatively secure in August earlier than falling additional by N984 in September.

The motion was according to inflation knowledge in response to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), as meals inflation eased to 19.57 per cent in August from 20.31 per cent in July, its first decline in six months. Headline inflation additionally fell to fifteen.39 per cent in August.

The report mentioned vegetable oil costs fell in 9 of the 13 Nigerian markets monitored, with the biggest decline recorded in Lagos, the place the value of 90 centilitres dropped from N5,000 to N3,000.

“Oil and protein together account for more than half the national decline,” the report mentioned.

Price fall drivers

However, the report cautioned that the decline was uneven throughout the nation, with Lagos and Ibadan accounting for a lot of the discount.

Nine of the 13 markets recorded declines of lower than 10 per cent, whereas two barely moved.

Port Harcourt was the one market the place the cost of getting ready a pot of jollof rice elevated, rising from N31,200 in June to N32,000 in September, a 2.6 per cent improve.

SBM Intelligence linked the rise to flooding in Port Harcourt and Obio/Akpor in late September, which disrupted circumstances in the town whereas different elements of the nation benefited from the harvest.

The report additionally recognized a recording error in Ibadan’s Bodija and Dugbe markets, the place curry and thyme costs had been recorded at about N3,500 every between January and June earlier than dropping to N650 every from July.

It mentioned the obvious discount in the spice costs was a unit-related error fairly than a real market motion, which means the reported 21.3 per cent decline in the cost of jollof rice in the 2 markets overstated the precise value discount.

Despite the quarterly reduction, the cost of getting ready a pot of jollof rice remained 5.8 per cent greater than in September 2025 and 540 per cent above the July 2016 degree.

The report additionally famous that rice costs contributed little to the newest decline, with the staple’s mixed value motion throughout the 13 markets amounting to only N50.

“This clearly shows a point the index has made for years: the Jollof Index is not a rice-price measure. Everything but the grain sets the cost of the pot,” it mentioned.

Regional breakdown

The South-South remained Nigeria’s costliest area for getting ready jollof rice, with Calabar Municipal closing September at N34,600 and Bayside Mbakpa at N34,500. Both markets recorded declines of simply N150 from June.

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In distinction, the Southwest recorded among the steepest reductions. Prices in Lagos’s Trade Fair and Balogun markets fell from N34,700 in June to N22,350 in September, a 35.6 per cent decline.

In the Southeast, the cost fell by 5.3 per cent in Onitsha to N21,350 and by 3.2 per cent in Awka to the identical quantity.

SBM Intelligence mentioned family responses additionally urged that customers had been adjusting their meals decisions as costs modified.

One respondent in Kumbotso, Kano State, who had stopped shopping for rooster, resumed shopping for one rooster every week after the value of a kilogram fell from N7,000 to N4,500.

Another respondent in Gwale mentioned the value of a cup of pepper fell from N2,500 to N1,400 the earlier yr, making it potential to renew cooking stew day by day.

The report, nonetheless, warned that one quarter of falling costs had not reversed the longer-term improve in meals prices, with the nationwide index nonetheless considerably above its degree a yr earlier.