The worth of {dollars} traded in Nigeria’s international trade market nearly doubled to $3.37 billion in the week ended October 9, 2026, from $1.70 billion the earlier week, marking a pointy restoration in trading exercise.
According to the most recent figures from FMDQ, which tracks international trade transactions involving authorised banks and their clients, whole trading elevated by 98.58%, representing a further $1.67 billion in transactions.
The rebound followed a 35.41% decline in the previous week ended October 2, with many of the restoration coming from transactions involving the fast buy and sale of foreign currency, generally often called spot transactions.
Spot transactions drive FX rebound
Data from FMDQ exhibits that spot transactions rose from $1.63 billion to $3.24 billion in the course of the week, accounting for roughly 96% of the rise in whole international trade trading.
Spot transactions contain shopping for or promoting foreign currency at prevailing trade charges for near-immediate supply.
Banks, companies and different market individuals generally use them to meet their international forex wants.
For companies that import items, uncooked supplies or tools, these transactions present a way of acquiring {dollars} to settle funds to abroad suppliers.
The newest figures present that:
- Total international trade trading elevated by $1.67 billion to $3.37 billion, representing a 98.58% improve.
- Spot transactions rose by $1.61 billion to $3.24 billion, a rise of 98.37%.
- Forward transactions greater than doubled from $64.73 million to $131.95 million.
- Average every day trading elevated to $673.97 million from $424.24 million in the earlier week.
The improve in common every day trading additionally factors to stronger exercise in the course of the reporting interval, though variations in the variety of trading days ought to be thought-about when evaluating the 2 weeks.
FX ahead transactions double
Beyond the rise in spot trading, Nigeria’s international trade market additionally recorded stronger exercise in ahead transactions, which permit companies and buyers to agree on an trade fee for a future forex buy or sale.
For instance, a Nigerian firm anticipating to pay a international provider in three months can use a ahead contract to cut back uncertainty about how a lot naira it can want when the cost turns into due.
FMDQ knowledge exhibits that ahead transactions elevated by 103.85% to $131.95 million in the course of the week, in contrast with $64.73 million beforehand.
The figures reveal that:
- Forward transactions elevated by roughly $67.22 million in the course of the reporting week.
- Forward trading accounted for simply 3.92% of whole international trade turnover.
- Spot transactions continued to dominate the market, accounting for the remaining 96.08% of trading exercise.
Despite the sharp improve in ahead transactions, their comparatively small share exhibits that the majority reported international trade trading continues to contain currencies purchased or bought for near-immediate supply.
The improve in forwards additionally doesn’t essentially imply extra companies are defending themselves in opposition to trade fee dangers, because the report doesn’t present a breakdown of the explanations behind the transactions.
Dollar trading returns close to September ranges
The newest rebound brings international trade trading exercise shut to ranges recorded in September, following a number of weeks of sharp fluctuations in market turnover.
In the week ended September 11, whole international trade trading reached $3.39 billion earlier than declining in subsequent reporting durations. By the week ended October 2, turnover had fallen to roughly $1.70 billion.
- The newest improve to $3.37 billion due to this fact represents a restoration to nearly the identical degree recorded a month earlier.
- The latest figures spotlight three essential developments:
- Foreign trade turnover has fluctuated sharply in latest weeks, reflecting modifications in reported trading exercise.
- The newest restoration was pushed overwhelmingly by spot transactions, which accounted for roughly 96% of the rise.
Higher trading volumes don’t essentially imply that {dollars} have turn out to be simpler to get hold of or that the naira will strengthen.
For Nigerian companies, international trade circumstances stay essential as a result of they have an effect on the price of importing uncooked supplies, tools and different items bought from abroad.
A extra energetic international trade market can create further alternatives for patrons and sellers to full transactions. However, increased trading volumes alone don’t assure improved greenback availability or larger trade fee stability, analysts say.
Experts spotlight influx sources:
In its weekly financial and market replace titled “Overview of markets in the week ended 09 October 2026”, Cordros Securities offered an perception into the sources of FX inflows on FMDQ. Citing knowledge from FMDQ, Cordros analysts highlighted two predominant sources, together with home and international inflows.
Reviewing September influx segments that noticed a outstanding decline, the funding analysts highlighted home influx sources throughout the CBN, Individuals, non-bank corporates and exporters/importers segments.
- “In the near term, the outlook for FX inflows will depend on the resilience of foreign portfolio participation and the recovery of domestic inflows. However, lower domestic yields and persistent geopolitical tensions could reduce the relative attractiveness of naira assets, weakening foreign portfolio inflows and adding pressure to FX liquidity,” Cordros Securities concluded.
The Head of Research at GTI Securities Limited, Mr. Abiodun Ogunniyi, offered extra insights into FX inflows into Nigeria’s cash market:
- “The sharp recovery in FX turnover could reflect renewed activity from exporters, foreign portfolio investors, offshore investors repatriating funds, and other participants supplying dollars through authorised dealers. However, the composition of actual dollar supply would be important in determining whether the recovery is sustainable.”
- “Export proceeds, foreign portfolio investment, diaspora remittances and foreign direct investment can all contribute to foreign currency supply, although they enter the market through different channels.”
- “If the latest increase in turnover is supported by stronger and more consistent inflows, it could improve transactions between buyers and sellers. The key is whether these inflows are sustained rather than driven by temporary portfolio movements or isolated transactions,” Ogunniyi concluded.
The key query is whether or not the restoration in trading exercise will proceed and translate into higher international trade circumstances for companies and buyers. That will rely on components past trading volumes, together with international forex inflows, demand for {dollars} and developments in the broader economic system.
