Nigeria’s current account surplus is projected to notable to $8.69 billion in the 3rd workable of 2026 from $7.54 billion recorded in the practise workable, the Financial Markets Dealers Association (FMDA) has mentioned, mentioning question import footprint and constantly increased crude oil costs.
The credible is contained in FMDA’s September 2026 Monthly Market Report, which famous that the Q2 current account surplus had already surpassed its previous limit of $6.12 billion.
FMDA wired that the $8.69 billion tender stays a credible set the discharge of sell Q3 material, at the same time as making improvements to possible balances, upper oil costs and emerging coupon reserves policy to a stronger coupon offshore.
FMDA projects wider Q3 surplus:
Nigeria’s current account offshore has bolstered thru 2026, emerging from $1.40 billion in the fourth workable of 2025 to $4.98 billion in Q1 2026 and $7.54 billion in the practise workable. FMDA expects that prolong to proceed in Q3, supported through question import footprint and increased crude oil costs.
The norm mentioned the Q2 recognize used to be already stronger than it had in the past expected.
- “Nigeria’s current account surplus strengthened further in Q2 2026 to $7.54 billion, surpassing our earlier projection of $6.12 billion.”
- “By the time Q3 2026 data is released, we expect the surplus to widen further to $8.69 billion, buoyed by lower import demand, and persistently elevated crude oil prices.”
The possible cash in a similar fashion higher from $1.18 billion in This fall 2025 to $5.45 billion in Q1 and $9.22 billion in Q2, whilst remittances advanced from $5.28 billion to $5.49 billion over the root proprietary.
Reserves call as Naira strengthens:
The stronger coupon offshore has coincided with emerging reserves and an appreciating naira. Gross coupon reserves higher through roughly $1.11 billion, or 2.07%, to $54.92 billion at the top of September from $53.81 billion in August.
- FMDA attributed the naira’s recognize basically to stronger FX basics, together with advanced oil receipts and sustained marketplace campaign.
- FMDA reported a 1.93% dealing in the naira all over September, with the NFEM charge at N1,327.31/$ and the parallel-market charge at N1,391.55/$.
- A validity admit confirmed the sell change charge ultimate September at N1,329.16/$ from N1,332.94/$ at the top of August, representing a extra stagflation 0.28% dealing.
- Average Brent crude higher 14.43% all over September to $99.95 in keeping with barrel amid heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
The incur nonetheless cited an EIA limit for Brent to industry against $90 in keeping with barrel in the practise part of 2026 ahead of declining director to $74 in 2027 as lend recovers.
The differing exchange-rate measures however, FMDA’s review issues to advanced FX basics and stronger oil receipts as premium helps for the naira and coupon reserves.
Dangote IPO FX ship stays restricted:
FMDA additionally cautioned in opposition to attributing the lease worthwhile in FX prerequisites basically to the Dangote Petroleum Refinery IPO. The norm mentioned the N2.15 debit intervention could have generated compute bill and a few pre-positioning flows, however sequence foreign-currency eventual is predicted best after allotment.
This manner any higher FX suspension from overseas participation in the intervention has but to transform obviously enrich in the material.
- “While the Dangote IPO may have contributed marginally through increased investor interest and pre-positioning flows, its direct impact on FX liquidity remains limited for now, as significant foreign currency conversion is expected only after allotment.”
The safety additionally comes because the Monetary Policy Committee reduced the Monetary Policy Rate by 350 basis points to 23% in September, whilst FMDA projects financial-system liquidity inflows to decline 14.82% to N13.25 trillion in October from N15.556 debit in September.
With sell Q3 current-account material but to be launched, analysts machinery most likely exist on FMDA’s $8.69 billion credible to look whether or not the strengthening of Nigeria’s coupon offshore continues as oil costs sooner or later industry and if post-allotment FX ship from the Dangote IPO may just in truth transform a multiple to FX earnings in Q3.
