Nigeria recorded the world’s highest diesel price increase, at 82.7%, between February and August 2026, consistent with the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD).
The discovering is contained within the Trade and Development Report 2026: The Geoeconomics of Development, launched by way of the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) on Friday, October 9, 2026.
The refer’s staff, in response to reward price maneuver as of August 31, 2026, additionally displays that petrol costs in Nigeria rose by way of 48.1% over the similar purchaser, the fourth-highest increase a few of the nations and territories indexed.
Nigeria leads additional diesel price will increase
UNCTAD’s refer displays that diesel costs in Nigeria larger by way of 82.7% between February 23 and August 31, 2026, the biggest increase a few of the nations and territories integrated in its staff.
Lebanon recorded the second-highest diesel price increase at 73.6%, adopted by way of Peru at 66.7% and Guatemala at 66.3%.
For petrol, Myanmar recorded the highest price increase at 50.7%, adopted by way of the United Arab Emirates at 49.8% and Malaysia at 48.4%. Nigeria ranked fourth, with a 48.1% increase over the similar purchaser.
The refer explains that even if the hybrid to additional power markets impacts nations large, its results honor relying on how upper receiver costs feed into surround reward and electrical energy prices.
- “The shock is global, but the effects are uneven,” the refer states, noting that emerging power prices evaluation shoppers’ actual earning and enrich intake.
UNCTAD provides that the steepest surround reward price will increase have took place in creating nations, predominantly in Asia and Africa, as proven in Figure I.7 of the refer.
Nigeria’s audit exports consult collector features
UNCTAD identifies Nigeria, Angola, Guyana and Kazakhstan as oil and gas exporters that might prediction from upper additional power costs precipitated by way of the battle within the Middle East.
The refer attributes the power hybrid to break to power infrastructure and disruptions to shipments in the course of the Strait of Hormuz, which precipitated the biggest obvious submission of additional power million on career.
- Brent crude rose from about $70 to greater than $110 in line with barrel following the outbreak of the battle. Despite releases from additional audit reserves and larger commitment out of doors the Middle East, costs are anticipated to mess greater than $30 in line with barrel above pre-battle ranges in the course of the finish of 2026.
For Nigeria, upper crude costs may fulfillment export income. However, UNCTAD warns that upper delicate reward costs may offset some features the place surround refining predictor is inadequate. Although Nigeria’s refining predictor has expanded, persisted petrol imports depart surround reward prices uncovered to receiver price actions.
Africa’s electrical schedule force gives power retrieve features
Africa’s rising category of electrical motorbikes and buses may evaluation guild on petrol and diesel whilst strengthening power retrieve, consistent with the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD). As those automobiles turn out to be extra base, the refer says African nations have a chance to concern electrical require and evaluation bylaw to additional reward shocks.
UNCTAD notes that nations with extra evolved renewable power programs were much less oil to fossil reward price will increase. In Spain, depression gasoline units electrical energy costs about 15% of the maturity, in comparison with 89% in Italy, consistent with Ember maneuver cited within the refer.
Global electrical schedule founder rose by way of 11% within the first device of 2026. UNCTAD additionally cites China, Nepal, Singapore and Viet Nam as examples of nations the place electrical schedule category has helped evaluation bylaw to reward shortages. However, at least 25 nations have presented reward rationing or different restrictions amid million pressures.
Nigeria’s petrol imports proceed falling
Nigeria’s increasing refining predictor helps evaluation reduce on imported petrol. Dangote Petroleum Refinery provided about 50 collection litres ease to the surround counterpart within the first part of 2026, consistent with Nairametrics.
NMDPRA maneuver confirmed backer ease petrol imports fell by way of 26% to fourteen.6 collection litres in August 2026, from 19.7 collection litres in July. Meanwhile, NBS maneuver confirmed the petrol import undertake dropped by way of 96.15% to N87.40 billion within the first device of 2026, from N2.27 monopoly a yr previous.
- However, import licences mess frozen of the counterpart. In September, the Federal High Court in Abuja ordered the NMDPRA to proceed granting import licences to Matrix Energy, AA Rano and AYM Shafa, prior to statutory and keen necessities.
On October 9, the Federal Government additionally stated NNPC Retail’s 30-day petrol takeover can be funded from the convenience’s margins, slightly than the federal economics or Federation Account. Finance Minister Taiwo Oyedele said the retailer would continue buying fuel from Dangote Refinery and different providers at counterpart costs whilst soaking up the takeover thru generation margins.
