Ademola Oshodi
Nigeria’s historical past gives a number of examples of remarkable management amid profound nationwide issue. General Yakubu Gowon presided over post-war reconciliation; General Murtala Muhammed revitalised the general public service, regardless of missing an electoral mandate; General Abdulsalami Abubakar swiftly restored civilian rule, and Dr Goodluck Jonathan’s 2015 election concession demonstrated democratic maturity.
Chief Olusegun Obasanjo led reforms, rehabilitated Nigeria internationally and secured an $18 billion Paris Club debt write-off, though his third time period bid diminished his democratic legacy.
Tinubu’s distinction is in uniting these strengths and making them endure by way of democratic renewal, financial recalibration, wider alternative, safety reform and renewed worldwide affect.
Commitment to Democracy
Assessing President Tinubu’s management begins along with his democratic report:
As a senator throughout Nigeria’s Third Republic, he grew to become a distinguished supporter of the National Democratic Coalition (NADECO) following the annulment of the June 12, 1993 presidential election. He later assembled the political coalition that grew to become the All Progressives Congress, which achieved Nigeria’s first federal switch of energy from a governing get together to an opposition get together.
His election in 2023 attracted criticism from observers and was legally challenged, nonetheless, the Supreme Court affirmed the consequence. That historic report has been strengthened by President Tinubu’s conduct in workplace.
Osun’s August 2026 election demonstrated his dedication to democracy. Before the election,Tinubu urged INEC to uphold the method and directed safety companies to shield voters and officers earlier than congratulating Governor Ademola Adeleke after the opposition Accord Party defeated his APC. Despite documented inducement and localised disruption, the voters’s alternative prevailed.
In Rivers State, the administration judged political paralysis and threats to public order grounds for emergency rule. Suspending the elected government and legislature drew constitutional objections. Their restoration six months later stored the intervention momentary, however the controversy calls for safeguarding aggressive politics in 2027.
That democratic conviction guides Nigeria overseas. At President Patrice Talon’s request, Tinubu authorised Nigerian airstrikes and troop deployments that helped defeat Benin’s December 2025 coup try. After Guinea-Bissau’s November coup, Tinubu authorised safety for opposition candidate Fernando Dias. His method inside ECOWAS didn’t restore constitutional rule in Niger, however mirrored a democratic precept: negotiation first, safety the place needed, and pressure when required.
Economic Reformation
Democratic authority earns public confidence when authorities can appropriate financial decline. In 2022, petrol subsidies consumed 2.2 % of GDP and 32 % of presidency income, whereas federal debt-service exceeded retained income. Nigeria’s tax-to-GDP ratio stood at 8.2 per cent in 2023, in opposition to Africa’s 16.1 per cent common. President Tinubu acted decisively. He dismantled the petrol-subsidy regime and converged official foreign-exchange home windows because the Central Bank tightened coverage and curtailed deficit financing. Hardship was felt and aid arrived slowly. Those deficiencies require correction, however preserving a system that rewarded arbitrage and smuggling would have deepened the disaster.
Four 2025 tax legal guidelines consolidated the tax framework, created the Nigeria Revenue Service, retained VAT at 7.5 per cent and waived VAT on important provides like meals and medication; a February 2026 directive channelled oil and fuel income into the Federation Account and subjected working expenses to legislative appropriation. These sought to enhance transparency, increase income and restore disciplined useful resource administration.
Tinubu’s reform belongs to a recognisable historical past of daring however tough recalibration. Deng Xiaoping’s reforms in China, India’s 1991 liberalisation and Margaret Thatcher’s contested financial programme all altered their economies in ways in which subsequent governments largely preserved. Conversely, in Russia, Boris Yeltsin illustrated fast liberalisation’s risks amid institutional weak spot.
Tinubu’s reforms are establishing a sturdy progress path whereas strengthening establishments to assist manufacturing, employment and higher livelihoods. Success hinges on turning stability into alternative.
Economic Successes
Early outcomes warrant cautious confidence whereas clarifying the work forward: actual GDP grew from 3.38 per cent in 2024, to 3.87 per cent in 2025, and 4.43 per cent in Q2 2026. The IMF reported stronger macroeconomic stability and resilience, noting that gross reserves elevated from roughly $40 billion to $46 billion throughout 2025, whereas internet reserves rose from about $23 billion to $35 billion. S&P additionally upgraded Nigeria’s sovereign ranking from B-minus to B. Capital inflows reached $23.22 billion, however roughly 85 per cent had been portfolio investments. This is encouraging, but Nigeria wants extra productive capital to develop manufacturing, create respectable jobs and construct home capability.
The goal of macroeconomic stability is in the end a greater life for residents. President Tinubu raised the minimal wage from N30,000 to N70,000 and exempted minimum-wage earners from revenue tax. By September 2026, the NELFUND had disbursed N355.87 billion after processing 1.66 million functions, establishing Nigeria’s first interest-free student-finance system at this scale.
Yet social challenges persist. The IMF estimated poverty at 63 % and meals insecurity affecting 27 million Nigerians in late 2025. The administration should flip macroeconomic stability into increased actual incomes, reliable companies and wider alternative. Tinubu’s administration introduced the case that secured the Supreme Court ruling for direct native authorities allocations from the Federation Account. This would empower authorities on the grassroots to present social facilities and interventions for the plenty.
Domestic refining exhibits how coverage transforms capability into nationwide benefit. The Dangote refinery was largely constructed earlier than Tinubu’s presidency and commissioned by President Buhari. Production, nevertheless, commenced below President Tinubu, whose administration supported home crude provide and launched the naira-for-crude association.
The US Energy Information Administration studies that seaborne petroleum-product exports rose from 46,000 barrels a day in 2023 to about 350,000 by the second quarter of 2026, whereas imports fell from nearly 400,000 to under 130,000. Buhari commissioned it and traders constructed it; Tinubu helped flip its operation right into a nationwide shift in direction of refined-product exports.
Foreign Policy and National Power
Foreign coverage is the place home reform turns into nationwide energy. Nigeria’s elimination from the FATF’s increased-monitoring listing lowered worldwide compliance considerations. Nigeria additionally joined BRICS as a accomplice nation and have become an Association nation of the International Energy Agency.
During Tinubu’s state go to to Britain — the primary by a Nigerian president in 37 years — UK Export Finance signed a £746 million port assure for port infrastructure. His administration has additionally intensified advocacy for everlasting African illustration on the UNSC and superior Nigeria’s management of the African Group’s initiative on worldwide tax cooperation.
Nigeria started that marketing campaign in 2022, however Resolutions 78/230 and 79/235 established negotiations below Tinubu. If that diplomatic marketing campaign finally aligns with the home tax reform, this might enlarge Nigeria’s cross-border tax base and capability to finance growth.
Security and State Capacity
Security reveals most clearly why home governance and overseas coverage can’t be separated. The 750 terrorism-related deaths recorded in 2025 and the 7,825 abductions reported over the next twelve months show that Nigeria’s safety scenario stays under the usual Nigerians deserve.
President Tinubu is responding structurally: state-police laws has superior by way of each chambers; he ordered 20,000 police recruits, forest-guard deployments and officers’ withdrawal from non-essential VIP duties; permitted 4 Army divisions and 28,000 recruits, and authorised army pay will increase of 30 to 80 per cent.
New preparations with Cameroon and Benin are strengthening cross-border operations. The US pledged to delivering long-outstanding army tools and struck ISIS-linked camps in coordination with Nigeria.
Together, these measures deal with a number of longstanding weaknesses: insufficient native presence, inadequate manpower, low morale and transnational sanctuaries. If sustained, this structural method may produce a sturdy discount in violence and higher safety of Nigerians.
The Measure of Greatness
Viewed collectively, that is the report of a President confronting inherited weaknesses whereas restoring Nigeria’s capability to act at dwelling and lead overseas. The eventual judgment on President Tinubu’s legacy will depend upon whether or not his choices produce enduring outcomes: rising actual incomes, stronger establishments, safer communities and credible democratic dedication. The foundations are seen and the work continues. On the proof earlier than us, President Tinubu is on monitor to grow to be one of the best head of state Nigeria has produced.
Oshodi is Senior Special Assistant to President Tinubu on Foreign Affairs and Protocol
